Season 7, Episode 3

Another episode and more scoring.

• Bran is reunited with at least one family member but needs to work on people skills.
• Jaime fails to avenge his daughter’s poisoning. Clearly Euron and Cersei and Qyburn did all the work.
• The Queen of Thorns dies before extracting her revenge on Cersei. As cool as her death may have been, she could have claimed responsibility for killing Joffrey at any time. She pretty much got her ass kicked. Not revenge.

Greg put 99 percent on Bran’s reunion, and only 1 percent on Jaime’s avenging. But Erik pulls into first, having been relatively confident that Olenna would fail. Mahsoun and Ryan’s misplaced confidence in Jaime getting stuff done hurt enough to knock them down.

Pete and Becky are bringing up the rear— mostly because of Arya and Nymeria. They put 1 and 0.5 percent respectively on that reunion, and so were much more surprised last week.

Good luck next week!

Season 7, Episode 2 (Belated)

A week late getting out the update, but episode 2 scored on three items:

• The Sand Snakes lose control of Dorne even if Dorne does not know it, yet.
• Arya is reunited with Nymeria though very brief.
• Jorah finds a cure for his greyscale but he may not survive the treatment.

This puts Mahsoun in an early lead, with Erik and Greg just behind.

Episode 3 update coming shortly.

Season 7, Episode 1

Reminder: this season’s Dead Pool includes only folks on Arya’s list as of the start of the season. So nothing is settled as of yet. But while we are on the topic, who is on the list and still alive, anyway? I am open to evidence, but here is one list:

• Sandor Clegane
• Ser Gregor Clegane
• Cersei Lannister
• Ser Ilyn Payne
• Beric Dondarrion
• Melisandre
• Thoros of Myr

In any case, here are everyone’s expected end-of-season scores:

Again, this does not mean much. Each person’s score is based on the assumption that that individual’s assigned probabilities are the actual probabilities of each event. So even though Erik’s expected score is lower than everyone else’s, Erik still expects to win. This says merely that Erik expects to win with a lower score than Mahsoun expects his own winning score to be.

Good luck next week!

Season 6, Episode 10 - Massive Spoilers

Season is over. But I am leaving the scores as preliminary in case anyone wants to argue over any of my decisions. I have theories which go against the way I have scored this, but initially I am scoring everything we saw on screen at face value. So here are the decisions as they currently stand.

Section 1: Dany and Tyrion
1. No, Dany did not come back to Westeros
2. No, Dany and Jon did not “get together”
3. No, Dany and Tyrion did not “get together”
4. No, Tyrion did not become king
5. No, Tyrion did not marry again
Section 2: Arya
6. Yes! Ayra did come back to Westeros (maybe?)
7. No, Arya did not die (maybe?)
8. No, Arya did not reunite with any sibling
9. No, Arya did not reunite with Nymeria
Section 3: At the Wall
10. No, the Night’s Watch was not annihilated
11. Yes! Jon Snow was brought back to life by Melisandre
12. No, Jon Snow and Melisandre did not “get together”
13. Yes! Jon’s parentage was definitively revealed (maybe?)
Section 4: In the North
14. Yes! Ramsay died
15. No, Ramsay did not get Sansa back
16. No, Sansa did not become Lady of the Vale
17. No, Sansa did not become queen
18. No, Sansa and Littlefinger did not “get together”
Section 5: King’s Landing
19. Yes! King Tommen died
20. No, Cersei did not die
21. No, Cersei and Jaime did not get married
22. No, Jaime did not avenge his daughter’s poisoning
BONUS: The Dead Pool
23. Arya killed four people (or did she?)

And so, here are the tentative end-of season standings

If you want to argue, have at it. But for now, it looks like Greg pulled through in the end.

Season 6 Episode 9

There we go. Ramsay does not get Sansa. But he does get killed. Oh yes, he does get killed.

Plenty of movement in the scores this week. Brie takes the lead with a PAIR of correct 99 percent picks. Faithless Ryan, thinking Ramsay was likely to live, falls to the bottom.

One more episode to go.

Season 6 Episode 8 - Preliminary Result

Okay folks, I am preliminarily ruling that “Arya” is in fact Arya and not Waif with Arya’s face. This does not yet change the current score.

The expected scores, however, I have updated to reflect the non-zero count.

Feel free to argue.

Season 6 Episode 7

Well, that was certainly fun. Initial ruling from the bench: if Arya dies as a result of her own stupidity, her death will not count in the bonus Dead Pool— merely Section 2.

Still no new score, though.

Anyone out there? Are we having fun yet? Next season, maybe I will be on the ball and send out a request for items rather than a last-minute questionnaire. That way, we might have better questions and more scoring in the first two-thirds of the season.