Season 7, Episode 7

Well that was fun!

The Biggest Surprises Settled Today
• Brie had 99 percent on revelation of Tyrion’s kinship to Dany (-5.4) and only 2 percent on Cersei remaining on the Iron Throne (-3.5)
• Mahsoun had 99 percent on Tyrion marrying again (-5.6) and another 99 percent on revelation of Varys having some supernatural ability (-5.8)
• Janessa had 99 percent on Littlefinger screwing over Jon and/or Sansa (-4.5) and another 99 percent on Melisandre meeting up again with Thoros (-4.2)
• Erik had 99 percent on the White Walkers overrunning Castle Black (-4.1)
• Rachel had 95 percent on Jon Snow die-dying (-3.6)
And proving your organizer shows no favorites...
• Becky had a mere 1 in 100 trillion that Arya would not scratch anyone off her list (-43.3)
• Everyone else scored more than 3 on this one, but Rachel had 10 percent on it (+6.5) and Mahsoun 20 percent (+7.5)

For the second season in a row, it looks like Greg has come out on top with more than 18 points. Second-place Erik is a ways behind with almost 12.

As with last season, here are all the preliminary scores. Feel free to argue below.

Section 1: The Challenge From the East
1. Tyrion is not revealed to be close kin to Dany
2. Tyrion does not marry again
3. Dany makes it to King’s Landing
4. Dany does not kill Cersei
5. Varys is not revealed to have some supernatural ability
6. Varys is not revealed to be a mer-creature or similar
7. The Sand Snakes lose control of Dorne
8. At least one dragon dies
Section 2: Happenings in the North
9. Littlefinger screws over neither Jon nor Sansa. Though he gave it a good go
10. Bran is reunited with at least one family member
11. Bran is not specifically responsible for the White Walkers passing the wall
12. The White Walkers do not overrun Castle Black
13. The White Walkers do not overrun Winterfell
14. Jon Snow does not die-die
Section 3: In Between
15. Sam abandons his studies at the Citadel (but not for Gilly)
16. Jaime takes a definitive stand against Cersei
17. Cersei remains on the Iron Throne
18. Jaime does not kill Cersei
19. Jaime does not avenge his daughter’s poisoning
20. It is not revealed the Blackfish survived the surrender of Riverrun
21. The Queen of Thorns dies before extracting her revenge on Cersei
Section 4: The Lost Stark
22. Arya does not meet up again with Melisandre
23. Arya does not kill Melisandre
24. Arya is reunited with at least one family member
25. Arya is reunited with Nymeria
26. Arya does not die
27. It is not revealed that Arya died last season
Section 5: Loose Ends
28. Jorah finds a cure for his greyscale
29. Gendry makes an appearance
30. Melisandre does not meet up again with Thoros of Myr
31. Khal Drogo does not return to life
32. Lady Stoneheart does not make an appearance
Section 6: Shipping
33. Brienne and Jaime do not “get together”
34. Brienne and Tormund do not “get together”
35. Jon Snow and Dany “get together”
36. Yara and Dany do not “get together”
37. The secret to Podrick’s lovemaking is not revealed
BONUS: The Dead Pool
38. Arya kills nobody from her list

Season 7, Episode 6

A lot of stuff seems set up, but to my eye the only item scoring this week:

• At least one dragon died. Of course Viserion would wind up a White-Flapper.

This pretty much buries Becky for this season, having put 99 percent on all dragons surviving. Greg and Anders figured 90 percent that at least one would die, and that was just enough to push Greg into first place by just over 0.4 points.

Still, only 10 of 38 items seem settled and so we can expect some jostling around next time. See you then!

Season 7, Episode 5

That was Hero Shield bullshit they pulled right there.

(Cenk Uygur)

Okay, so Jaime is not dead, and may yet kill Cersei or otherwise take some definitive stand against her. This pushes Greg all the way into third just behind Ryan.

Elsewhere,

• Sam appears to have abandoned his studies at the Citadel, but it is hard to argue he did so for Gilly. (Listen, Sam!)
• Also, Gendry makes an appearance (Such his father’s son!)

Thanks to a pair of 99 percents, less than half a point separates Greg from the top spot. Becky continues to struggle, having put only 1 percent on Gendry’s appearance.

Have at it. Next week’s update will probably be delayed.

Apparently, Nazis have forgotten how powerful the Jews really are. Nine days from today, as a small reminder, we will blot out the sun. After all,

— Jordan Ellenberg (@JSEllenberg) August 12, 2017

Season 7, Episode 4

Possibly controversial, but one-handed and sinking in full plate means my preliminary ruling is Jaime is dead. That means,

• Jaime does not take a definitive stand against Cersei, and
• Jaime does not kill Cersei, but
• Arya is reunited with at least one family member.

Greg had a lot of confidence in Jaime standing up to Cersei and lost a bunch of ground. Pete is the big winner for the moment, with only 30 percent on Jaime’s stand and 15 percent on Jaime killing Cersei. Brie scored just behind Pete on all three items, but still is not enough to overtake our leader Erik. Erik hit the middle of the pack on all three questions, but scraped up enough points to make it work.

Until next week, feel free to argue!

Season 7, Episode 3

Another episode and more scoring.

• Bran is reunited with at least one family member but needs to work on people skills.
• Jaime fails to avenge his daughter’s poisoning. Clearly Euron and Cersei and Qyburn did all the work.
• The Queen of Thorns dies before extracting her revenge on Cersei. As cool as her death may have been, she could have claimed responsibility for killing Joffrey at any time. She pretty much got her ass kicked. Not revenge.

Greg put 99 percent on Bran’s reunion, and only 1 percent on Jaime’s avenging. But Erik pulls into first, having been relatively confident that Olenna would fail. Mahsoun and Ryan’s misplaced confidence in Jaime getting stuff done hurt enough to knock them down.

Pete and Becky are bringing up the rear— mostly because of Arya and Nymeria. They put 1 and 0.5 percent respectively on that reunion, and so were much more surprised last week.

Good luck next week!

Season 7, Episode 2 (Belated)

A week late getting out the update, but episode 2 scored on three items:

• The Sand Snakes lose control of Dorne even if Dorne does not know it, yet.
• Arya is reunited with Nymeria though very brief.
• Jorah finds a cure for his greyscale but he may not survive the treatment.

This puts Mahsoun in an early lead, with Erik and Greg just behind.

Episode 3 update coming shortly.

Season 7, Episode 1

Reminder: this season’s Dead Pool includes only folks on Arya’s list as of the start of the season. So nothing is settled as of yet. But while we are on the topic, who is on the list and still alive, anyway? I am open to evidence, but here is one list:

• Sandor Clegane
• Ser Gregor Clegane
• Cersei Lannister
• Ser Ilyn Payne
• Beric Dondarrion
• Melisandre
• Thoros of Myr

In any case, here are everyone’s expected end-of-season scores:

Again, this does not mean much. Each person’s score is based on the assumption that that individual’s assigned probabilities are the actual probabilities of each event. So even though Erik’s expected score is lower than everyone else’s, Erik still expects to win. This says merely that Erik expects to win with a lower score than Mahsoun expects his own winning score to be.

Good luck next week!