Season 6 Episode 4

So far, not much has happened. I mean, Jon Snow lives. That is not nothing. As we can see, Irene was least surprised by this outcome (having insisted on a 100 percent chance of Jon Snow’s revival.

Below we see the expected 95 percent confidence interval for each player’s score by season’s end— assuming that the corresponding player offered the correct odds on each event. Note that Mark seems to have the greater expectations for himself than anyone else’s own expectations. I am pretty sure this means only that Mark’s predictions are most out of line relative to the rest of the field.